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タイトル原子炉シビアアクシデント時におけるソースターム不確かさ及び感度解析に関する総合手法の開発
翻訳タイトルAn Integrated approach to source term uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for nuclear reactor severe accidents
情報提供機関Taylor & Francis
著者Zheng, X.
著者伊藤 裕人
著者玉置 等史
著者丸山 結
掲載日2016-03
言語eng
ページ数333p.-344p.
種別report
内容記述Large-scale computer programs simulate severe accident phenomena and often have a moderate-to-large number of models and input variables. Analytical solutions to uncertainty distributions of interested source terms are impractical, and influential inputs on outputs are hard to discover. Additionally, runs of such computer programs, or integral codes, are time-consuming and hence expensive. This article presents an integrated approach to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for nuclear reactor severe accident source terms, with an example which simulates an accident sequence similar to that occurred at Unit 2 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant using an integral code, MELCOR. Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis has been elaborated to investigate released fractions of representative radionuclides, Cs and CsI. In order to estimate sensitivity of inputs, which have a substantial influence on the core melt progression and the transportation process of radionuclides, a variance decomposition method is applied. Stochastic process, specifically a Dirichlet process, is applied to construct a surrogate model in sensitivity analysis as a substitute of the code. The surrogate model is cross-validated by comparing with corresponding results of MELCOR. The analysis with the simpler model avoids laborious computational cost so that importance measures for input factors are obtained successfully.
情報源JOPSS関連URL関連URL
URIhttps://f-archive.jaea.go.jp/dspace/handle/faa/211406